WATER/WASTEWATER: A Slower Pace, But Plenty of Potential
It's not easy to entertain an audience while spouting economic statistics, but Tom Decker, a veteran speaker at VMA's Market Outlook Workshop, found a way. Decker, who is a vice president with CH2M Hill, presented the audience with his version of Jeopardy-water and wastewater style.
For $100, what is the question behind the answer, "5%," Decker began. How much did wastewater grow in 2007?
That's a slower pace from previous years where wastewater growth year over year was averaging in the double digits, Decker said. But wastewater is still outgrowing the pace of water. In fact, some reports showed water declines for the last year, he said.
One reason for slower growth is "utilities are seeing sharp increases for O&M [operation and maintenance], higher energy costs, high chemical costs," he said. In such a situation, "the amount left to spend on capital projects drops."
"This is not a trend, but you should keep an eye on it," Decker said. History has shown that the industry lags what's happening with the economy by about 18 months.
So for $200, what's the question to the answer "two times," Decker quizzed the audience. What is the rate at which the world desalination capacity will increase by 2016?
Since only 1% of the world's usable water supply is now supplied by that process, that leaves plenty of room for growth, Decker said.
"Process advances keep on coming; the cost to produce inches downward, and brine disposal [one of the industry's main physical challenges] is becoming more advanced," Decker said.
And for $300, what's the question answered by: "51%," Decker next ?challenged. What is the storage capacity for water in Lake Mead?
He cited that number because it is an indication of a situation happening not only in the U.S., but in the world. Studies have shown that 39 states will experience water shortages by 2020 and that two-thirds of the world will be in water stress by 2025, he said.
"Call it what you want, but there is a water drought," Decker declared.
One way states are reacting is to put restrictions on development. In California and Colorado, for example, jurisdictions are requiring documentation that a development will have 20 years of water supply before construction can begin, Decker said.
The next Jeopardy answer was: "The Gay '90s, the Roaring '20s, Post-WWII, and That '70s Show." The question revealed a problem in the United States (as well as some of the developed nations): When was much of the nation's water infrastructure built?
"None of that is terribly recent, is it?" Decker asked the audience. In this nation, there are 72,000 water miles that are greater than 80 years old-several decades beyond their normal life expectancy, he said. New York City itself loses 36 million gallons a day from its water
Valves system on the way from the reservoir to the city; and a third of the national publicly owned treatment works are currently subject to Environmental Protection Agency enforcement actions because of equipment malfunctions, Decker pointed out.
The next answer was: "$500 billion." The question revealed where a big part of the industry's problem lies: How much is needed just to keep our systems up to snuff?
In the '70s, Decker said, the government was paying for about 78% of water/wastewater infrastructure improvements, but that number has fallen to just 10%. Meanwhile, the burden falls on local municipalities, which are receiving some help from states that face their own set of financial woes. While privatization is part of the answer (more than $10 billion has been raised for private equity infrastructure) and public-private partnerships are starting to blossom: "This is a slow-moving train," Decker observed.